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Covid vaccines saved lives in England, but why do estimates differ? | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters

Two Public Health England estimates of averted deaths use different approaches

Public Health England reported that about 27,000 lives in England have been saved by Covid-19 vaccines, higher than the previous estimate of 10,400 lives. Why are these estimates so different?

These are not statistics in the usual sense; researchers cannot magically count the people who would be dead in parallel universes in which vaccines were not available. They need to build mathematical models of what would have happened in these “counterfactual” worlds.

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Read the original article at The Guardian

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