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Leaked Doherty Covid modelling shows just the most worrying scenario – not the most likely | Melissa Davey

Analysis: prediction of 200,000 cases a day in Australia is just one out of dozens of scenarios but presented alone it can be highly misleading

Much of the pandemic modelling to make news headlines since Covid-19 hit has depicted concerning scenarios involving high case numbers and hospitalisations.

On Thursday, modelling from the University of NSW and cited by NSW health minister Brad Hazzard found Covid-19 cases in the state could reach 25,000 a day by the end of January. The latest modelling to raise alarm bells came from the Doherty Institute and was leaked to the media on Tuesday after being sent to politicians ahead of a meeting of national cabinet on Wednesday. It said Australia could see 200,000 new Covid cases a day by late January or early February.

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Read the original article at The Guardian

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