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Take care with claims about unvaccinated case rates | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters

Different estimates of the population can produce wildly different rates

ITV’s political editor, Robert Peston, wrote a Twitter thread with the headline: “Infections higher among double vaxxed for those [aged] 40 to 79 than for non-vaxxed.” ITV changed that headline, but Peston was surprised that these figures “occasioned so little debate”. So let’s debate them.

A Public Health England report on 9 September showed that over the previous four weeks there had been, for example, more than 97,000 cases among people aged between 40 and 49. The huge majority (more than 82,000) had been vaccinated. This is expected when vaccine coverage is high and protection not perfect: most car occupants who die in road incidents are wearing seatbelts.

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Read the original article at The Guardian

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