CDC Novel Coronavirus
COVID-19 Forecasts: Deaths
University of Texas, Austinexternal icon
Model name: UT
Intervention assumptions: This model estimates the extent of social distancing using geolocation data from mobile phones and assumes that the extent of social distancing will not change during the period of forecasting. The model is designed to predict confirmed COVID-19 deaths resulting from only a single wave of transmission.
Methods: Nonlinear Bayesian hierarchical regression with a negative-binomial model for daily variation in death rates.
Read the original article at Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)