UK coronavirus live: Boris Johnson defends ‘world beating’ test-and-trace system despite fall in contacts reached – as it happened

Thank you for following the blog and all your comments today. Here is a summary of the main developments:

• Experts have warned that the test and trace system in England is not performing well enough, despite Boris Johnson’s insistence it is world beating. The latest results showed 72.4% of close contacts of people who have tested positive for coronavirus were reached in the week ending 29 July, down from 76.2%
• Nine Conservative MPs in Greater Manchester have written a letter to the health secretary demanding “a more sophisticated approach” that would see decisions taken on a borough by borough basis or even town by town basis. They are unhappy that the entire region of 2.8 million people was put back into partial lockdown last Thursday after infections started to rise.
• Preston could be the next area to face government intervention after a rise in coronavirus rates, the city council’s chief executive warned. Speaking on BBC Breakfast on Thursday, Adrian Phillips said: “Our rates are increasing and they have increased over the last week to a level now where we are concerned that we could face government intervention.”
• Covid infections are growing at 3,200 per day in England and R is close to 1 in most regions, according to Cambridge University experts. predict that the number of deaths each day is likely to be between 47 and 91 by the end of the third week of August. The latest government figures put the daily rise in the number of cases in the UK at 950, with another 49 deaths recorded after a positive coronavirus test.
• The government has admitted 50m masks bought as part of a £252m medical supplies contract awarded to an investment firm have been deemed unsuitable for use by NHS workers. The Good Law Project and EveryDoctor, which are suing the government over its contract with the supplier, Ayanda, estimate the 50m masks would have cost more than £150m.
• The number of Covid cases in Aberdeen, where some lockdown measures have been reintroduced has risen by 25 to 79 and is expected to increase further, Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, said. She said a further 30 cases were being investigated to see whether they were linked. Sturgeon told residents not to leave the city for holidays.
• Clusters of Covid-19 infections have been identified in Leeds, which was not subjected to enhanced lockdown restrictions last Thursday, unlike neighbouring Bradford, Calderdale and Kirklees. The clusters are concentrated in and around the Kirkstall and Harehills neighbourhoods. The city’s seven day rate has also been gradually increasing from 4.1 cases per 100,000 people early last week to 13.3 as of 5 August.
• Five clusters have been identified in Northern Ireland over the past seven days with 35 associated cases and 239 close contacts, according to the Public Health Agency (PHA).Dr Gerry Waldron, head of health protection at the PHA, said it should act as a timely reminder against complacency.

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There has been more reaction coming in to the latest test and trace statistics. Despite Boris Johnson’s continuing to insist the system in England is “world beating”, the consensus is that the government must do better (see. 3.33pm).

Prof Sheila Bird, formerly programme leader, MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, said:

Test and trace’s poor performance in reaching identified close contacts who are members of the household of a non-complex index case is extraordinary and needed explanation. Explanation [is] awaited still.

Is language a barrier or age-group (extreme youth or being very old) or illness; and why does Test and trace not enlist the help of the index case or – as recommended by the Royal Statistical Society – select a random sample of index-case households to be visited on a random day (or pair of days) during the household’s quarantine for swab-testing to be offered.

These random visits also check on adherence and would allow the reasons to be understood for T&T’s failure to reach over 40% of household members when the index case is non-complex …

Prime minister, any world-beating Test & Trace system should inform us, the public, how many tested positive during or soon after their quarantine period who belonged to T&T’s two high-risk groups (a) member of the household of symptomatic index case (b) identified external close contact of a symptomatic case. Any world-beating Test & Trace system should also be designed to learn about asymptomatic infections in those two high-risk groups; and be able to document adherence to quarantine.

Eivor Oborn, professor of health care management, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick, said:

Though the system has been operating for just over two months, the percentage of positive cases being contacted through contact tracing system has remained stubbornly around 80% since mid-June.

There is also a slight decline in being able to reach and isolate the contacts of those who test positive. In this sense the system for testing and tracing does not seem to be improving.

Dr Joshua Moon, research fellow in the science policy research unit (SPRU) at the University of Sussex Business School, said the results were “not a great sign if we’re serious about keeping the virus under control in the UK”. He added:

Over the nine weeks of NHS T&T activity, the percentage of non-household contacts has been increasing, indicating that the changes are likely to be as a result of the government’s decision to relax lockdown measures.

The number of people who have died in the UK after a positive test for Covid-19 has increased by 49 from the previous day to 46,413, according to the government’s official death toll.

The latest Office for National Statistics count says 56,600 deaths have been registered in the UK where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate.

Five clusters have been identified in Northern Ireland over the past seven days with 35 associated cases and 239 close contacts, according to the Public Health Agency (PHA).

Dr Gerry Waldron, head of health protection at the PHA, said:

This should act as a timely reminder that we must not become complacent – coronavirus remains in circulation and we have seen an increase in cases in recent weeks. It is therefore essential that we remember the key advice to help keep ourselves and those around us safe.

Maintain social distancing, wash your hands regularly, and get tested if you display any symptoms of coronavirus.

The PHA said there had been 23 clusters identified in Northern Ireland since 25 May, when the test-and-trace programme went live, 11 of which remain open.

Some 168 cases of Covid-19 have been associated with these clusters, with nine of the clusters having had five or more cases associated with them.

Earlier this week, two businesses in Newcastle, Co Down, closed temporarily following outbreaks among their staff.

The statement from the PHA came as the Department of Health’s daily updates showed 43 more positive cases of coronavirus have been detected in the region, bringing the total to 6,049.

No new deaths were recorded, leaving the total in the region at 556, according to departmental figures.

The PHA has defined a cluster as two or more laboratory-confirmed cases of Covid-19 among individuals associated with a key setting, with illness onset dates within a 14-day period.

Key settings that have recorded a cluster include workplaces, retail or hospitality premises, domestic gatherings, and sporting settings. However, the PHA said the transmission risk was highest in a household setting.

The Department of Health said the R number was now “highly likely” to be above 1 in Northern Ireland.

The current estimate for the R value is between 0.8 and 1.8. R represents the number of individuals who, on average, will be infected by a person with the virus.

A spokeswoman for the Department of Health said while community transmission remained low in Northern Ireland, the number of positive tests per day had increased threefold from early July.

The number of new coronavirus cases in the UK is still rising with another 950 cases reported as of 9am this morning, according to the latest official daily figures.

This is an increase on the 892 new cases reported on Wednesday and above the daily average of 820 reported yesterday.

The rate has been rising since dropping to a four-month low of 546 almost a month ago.

Some reaction to Johnson’s insistence that our test-and-trace system is still “world beating”:

On the new planning shakeup, Johnson added:

It’s long overdue because we’ve got a fantastic homebuilding industry with fantastic builders who do a great job. But for some reason or other, and planning has a lot to do with it, it takes far too long to build a home in this country, and they’re way way too expensive, by comparison with France, Germany wherever. They build many more homes per capita and that’s unfair on the younger generation who find themselves excluded from getting onto the property, excluded from any chance of having the home that they need in a good time.

What we’re proposing to do are measures which will certainly mean that you continue to have beautiful homes. In fact we’re going to put more conditions in for beauty, for space standards, so that people have fantastic homes to live in.

But also, we’ve got to move this thing onwards faster and get good projects going in a more timely way. It’s giving local people more powers to get good projects done faster. And that will be for the benefit of millions of younger people who at the moment find that they’re just unable to get the housing that would make such a huge difference to their lives.

Johnson also insisted that the government’s test and trace system was still “world beating” despite data showing that fewer contacts are being followed up. He said:

It certainly does fit that description as world beating because I think I’m right in saying that we are now testing more per head of population than virtually any other country in Europe certainly. In America, they’re testing a huge number of people. That test and trace system is absolutely crucial for our ability to fight the disease, and it is working.

If you look at what we’re doing with some of the other local social distancing measures that we’re bringing back in, that’s entirely driven by our ability to detect cases, through local test and trace, working with local authorities and taking the right local measures. And that is how we hope that we’ll be able to keep the lid on the disease.

What it also takes, of course, is everybody remembers the mantra: ‘hands, face, space’. Wash your hands; cover your face if you’re in a shop or on public transport; and maintain social distancing. Plus: get a test if you think you’ve got symptoms. And that will really, really help us to continue to control this disease.